Coronavirus: If the new variant does not appear, the third wave will be mild, the peak will come in October – Research

If the rapidly spreading mutants of the corona virus do not emerge, then the third Covid-19 may be just a wave between October and November. In the case of rapidly spreading mutants, the third wave of Covid will be equal to the first wave. However, if the corona virus had mutants that had the ability to evade immunity, the size of the third wave could be significant. The probability of a third wave of corona has been estimated from the formula mathematical model for the epidemic.

What will be the nature of the third wave of Corona?

IIT researchers believe that the third wave of corona cannot be as scary as the second wave. If the new variant of Corona does not attack, then the third wave may be mild. Significantly, scientists had almost accurately estimated the peak of the second wave of corona. This mathematical model of his shows the increase in cases of infection this month. It is estimated that in the worst case scenario in October, more than one lakh cases can reach the peak every day. Maninder Agarwal of IIT Kanpur, one of the national ‘supermodel’ sources, told the Times of India, “There will be a slight increase in late August and throughout September as the lockdown is lifted. It will not be because of any new variant. Without the variant, the severity of the third wave would be less.”

IIT scientists’ model reveals formula 

The peak of daily cases can be very less i.e. only around 50,000. Explaining that, he said, “If there is a third wave, the burden on the hospital will be even less than in the case of the first wave.” The graph, which the researchers released in the analysis, in early July, shows that the total numbers will eventually start decreasing after peaking in October and are expected to be non-existent in December. According to the new model, the good news is that a potential third wave is likely to be less severe, but there is no reason to downgrade protection. Appropriate treatment of COVID-19 should be continued. Vaccination must be accelerated to reap the benefits.

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